SHFE tin prices remain high and range-bound; downstream enterprises have basically completed restocking [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning News on July 11, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened slightly higher during the night session and maintained high-level consolidation, closing near 265,900 yuan/mt, up 0.37% from the previous trading day.

Macro Environment: (1) Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows that from July 1-6, nationwide retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 135,000 units, up 21% YoY and down 11% MoM. The NEV retail penetration rate stood at 56.7%, with cumulative retail sales hitting 6.583 million units year-to-date, marking a 37% YoY increase. (Bullish ★) (2) Industry sources and trade officials indicate Brussels is discussing measures with US counterparts to shield the EU automotive industry from high US import tariffs, including tariff cuts, import quotas, and tax credit offsets for EU automakers' US export values. (3) China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) data released today (July 10) shows China's automotive industry achieved double-digit YoY growth across multiple economic indicators in H1 2025. Supported by proactive macro policies, the economy remained stable. From January to June, the auto market maintained strong momentum with production and sales both exceeding 15 million units, each registering over 10% YoY growth. NEV production/sales reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, up 41.4% and 40.3% YoY, with NEVs accounting for 44.3% of total new vehicle sales. (Bullish ★)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply Disruptions: Major tin-producing regions like Yunnan face tightening tin ore supply. Some smelters may continue production halts for maintenance or implement minor production cuts in July. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand Side: PV Sector: Post-installation rush, PV tin strip orders in east China declined, with some producers reducing operating rates. Electronics Sector: South China's electronics terminals entered the off-season. Combined with elevated tin prices, end-users adopted strong wait-and-see sentiment, maintaining only essential orders. Other Sectors: Demand for tinplate, chemicals, etc., remained stable without unexpected growth.

Spot Market: Traders reported sluggish trading yesterday, with most transactions around 10-20 mt. As prices rebounded, downstream enterprises gradually completed restocking and shifted to a wait-and-see approach.
[The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should exercise caution, avoid relying solely on this analysis, and make independent judgments. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM).]